Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-07-16

Forecasts archived: 24
Settled (expiry passed): 24

Big Piney Creek

05:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:30 UTC)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 1.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 1.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 2.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 8.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 18.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

14:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

13:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

12:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

11:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 22:00 UTC)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 20.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)