Empirical Forecasts — Cossatot River — 2026-07-12

Forecasts archived: 24
Settled (expiry passed): 24

Cossatot River

05:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 2.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 8.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 33.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 41.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 42.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:30 UTC)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 41.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 39.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 33.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 8.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 23:00 UTC)

14:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

13:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

12:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

11:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)