Cossatot River — Predictions: 2026-07-15
Predictions issued: 9
Settled (peak window passed): 9
Issued 2026-07-15 21:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
3.86 ft |
3.72 ft |
-0.14 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 21:50 |
2026-07-15 16:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.53" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 4 |
0.48" |
0.18 ft |
21:14 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.50" |
0.16 ft |
22:36 |
LIGHT |
Issued 2026-07-15 20:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
3.94 ft |
3.79 ft |
-0.15 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 20:50 |
2026-07-15 15:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.53" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 3 |
0.75" |
0.67 ft |
19:17 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.48" |
0.18 ft |
21:14 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.50" |
0.16 ft |
22:36 |
LIGHT |
Issued 2026-07-15 19:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
4.08 ft |
3.82 ft |
-0.26 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 19:50 |
2026-07-15 14:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.53" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 3 |
0.75" |
0.67 ft |
19:17 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.48" |
0.18 ft |
21:14 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.50" |
0.16 ft |
22:36 |
LIGHT |
Issued 2026-07-15 18:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
3.58 ft |
3.82 ft |
+0.24 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 18:50 |
2026-07-15 14:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.53" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 2 |
1.03" |
2.13 ft |
17:21 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.75" |
0.67 ft |
19:17 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.48" |
0.18 ft |
21:14 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.50" |
0.16 ft |
22:36 |
LIGHT |
Threshold crossings
- low_floatable_up: 2026-07-15 18:50
Issued 2026-07-15 17:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
4.33 ft |
3.82 ft |
-0.51 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 17:50 |
2026-07-15 14:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.53" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 2 |
1.03" |
2.13 ft |
17:21 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.75" |
0.67 ft |
19:17 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.48" |
0.18 ft |
21:13 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.49" |
0.16 ft |
22:36 |
LIGHT |
Threshold crossings
- low_floatable_up: 2026-07-15 17:50
Issued 2026-07-15 16:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
4.17 ft |
3.82 ft |
-0.35 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 17:50 |
2026-07-15 14:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.52" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 2 |
1.02" |
2.10 ft |
17:19 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.74" |
0.66 ft |
19:15 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.47" |
0.18 ft |
21:08 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.48" |
0.16 ft |
22:30 |
LIGHT |
Threshold crossings
- low_floatable_up: 2026-07-15 16:50
Issued 2026-07-15 15:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
6.14 ft |
3.27 ft |
-2.87 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 15:50 |
2026-07-15 12:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.47" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.01" |
6.69 ft |
15:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.94" |
1.94 ft |
17:09 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.70" |
0.62 ft |
19:09 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.43" |
0.16 ft |
20:59 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.46" |
0.15 ft |
22:23 |
LIGHT |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-07-15 15:50
- low_floatable_up: 2026-07-15 15:50
- optimal_up: 2026-07-15 15:50
- above_recommended_up: 2026-07-15 15:50
Issued 2026-07-15 14:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
6.86 ft |
3.18 ft |
-3.68 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 14:50 |
2026-07-15 11:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.30" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.80" |
5.31 ft |
15:07 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.77" |
1.59 ft |
16:56 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.52" |
0.46 ft |
18:47 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.29" |
0.11 ft |
20:23 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.31" |
0.10 ft |
21:45 |
LIGHT |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-07-15 14:50
- low_floatable_up: 2026-07-15 14:50
- optimal_up: 2026-07-15 14:50
- above_recommended_up: 2026-07-15 14:50
Issued 2026-07-15 13:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.41 ft |
3.27 ft |
+0.86 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 15:50 |
2026-07-15 12:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (1.95" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (33 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.06" |
0.24 ft |
14:12 |
LIGHT |
| 2 |
0.20" |
0.35 ft |
16:11 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.20" |
0.18 ft |
18:08 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.18" |
0.07 ft |
19:54 |
LIGHT |
| 5 |
0.22" |
0.07 ft |
21:22 |
LIGHT |