Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-07-11
Predictions issued: 4
Settled (peak window passed): 4
Issued 2026-07-12 00:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
28 CFS |
19 CFS |
-9 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-12 00:51 |
2026-07-11 19:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.22" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.96" |
225 CFS |
23:37 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-07-11 23:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
170 CFS |
19 CFS |
-150 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-11 23:51 |
2026-07-11 18:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.20" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.94" |
221 CFS |
23:35 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-07-11 22:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
119 CFS |
19 CFS |
-100 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-11 22:51 |
2026-07-11 18:00 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.89" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.63" |
148 CFS |
23:06 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-07-11 21:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
66 CFS |
19 CFS |
-46 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-11 22:51 |
2026-07-11 18:00 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.57" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.31" |
72 CFS |
22:35 |
MODERATE |