Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-07-12

Forecasts archived: 23
Settled (expiry passed): 23

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

05:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 2.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 8.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 19.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 21.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

15:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

14:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

13:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

12:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

11:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

10:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

09:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

08:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

07:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 22.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)