Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains stable. It correctly handled a low-signal day with minor QPE noise, preventing a false positive rise prediction.
The model correctly predicted a flat gauge response on a day with zero recorded precipitation at the gauge and negligible late-day QPE, matching the observed baseline conditions.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 0.82 ft | 0.86 ft | -0.04 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.04 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was borne out by the actual outcome, as the gauge remained at baseline levels.
The prediction of 0.82 ft closely matches the observed daily maximum of 0.86 ft, resulting in a negligible peak error of -4.7%. Although there was a minor spike in QPE during the evening hours (16:13-22:13), the gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0.0 inches for the 24-hour period, indicating that either the rain was not widespread or did not infiltrate/run off significantly. The hydrograph remained flat with only a 0.04 ft fluctuation, confirming that the system was in a resting state despite the WET antecedent moisture condition.
The timing error of 23.8 hours is an artifact of the daily aggregation method rather than a hydrological failure; the predicted peak time refers to the start of the next prediction window, while the actual peak represents the maximum reading within the current day. Since the magnitude prediction was accurate and the system correctly identified the lack of a significant runoff event, this is classified as a correct prediction. No calibration adjustments are warranted as the model effectively suppressed a false rise from the late-day QPE noise.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable. It correctly handled a low-signal day with minor QPE noise, preventing a false positive rise prediction.