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Watershed Radar Predictions

Gauges: 23 min ago  |  Radar (QPE): 58 min ago  |  Forecast (QPF): 66 min ago

Radar: MRMS product 20:05 UTC Jul 17  |  Forecast: WPC QPF cycle 06z Jul 17  |  Updates every 15 min

DrainageStatusRecent Rain
(Past 7 days)		LocationRadiusLagEstimated Fallen (QPE)Forecast to Fall (QPF)TriggerDetail
1hr3hr6hr12hr24hr6hr12hr24hr
Big Piney Family
Upper Big PineyNo Alert1.22 in35.78N 93.28W4.0 km10-140.000"0.001"0.001"0.001"0.001"0.000"0.000"0.010"1.5" / 24hr0.00" in 24hr — 0% of 1.50" trigger
Haw CreekNo Alert1.02 in35.67N 93.28W2.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"2.5" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.50" trigger
Hurricane (Newton) CreekNo Alert2.59 in35.79N 93.16W3.0 km6-80.005"0.028"0.028"0.028"0.028"0.000"0.000"0.010"1.35" / 6hr0.03" in 6hr — 2% of 1.35" trigger (0.9x rain adj)
Buffalo Family
Adkins DrainageNo Alert1.66 in35.81N 93.44W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.020"4.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Boen Gulf DrainageNo Alert3.16 in35.88N 93.39W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.020"4.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Upper BuffaloNo Alert2.34 in35.82N 93.47W4.0 km6-80.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"2.0" / eventNo active rain event — Q 22 cfs (BONE-DRY: needs 2.00")
Beech CreekNo Alert2.24 in35.93N 93.46W2.0 kmNOW0.105"0.106"0.106"0.106"0.106"0.000"0.000"0.010"3.0" / 6hr0.11" in 6hr — 3% of 3.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Cossatot Family
Upper CossatotNo Alert3.40 in34.42N 94.20W5.0 km8-100.000"0.000"0.000"0.003"0.314"0.000"0.000"0.020"0.4" / eventNo active rain event — Q 62 cfs (WET: needs 0.40")
Baker CreekNo Alert4.05 in34.36N 94.16W3.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.006"0.459"0.000"0.000"0.010"0.8" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 0.80" trigger (Cossatot WET × 2.0)
Kiamichi Family
Pine Creek OKNo Alert1.28 in34.49N 95.63W5.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.479"0.000"0.000"0.039"2.0" / 12hr0.00" in 12hr — 0% of 2.00" trigger
Buck Creek OKNo Alert1.82 in34.39N 95.66W3.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.364"0.000"0.000"0.020"1.8" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 1.80" trigger (0.9x rain adj)
Kings Family
Upper Kings RiverNo Alert2.51 in35.87N 93.58W3.0 km4-60.010"0.015"0.015"0.015"0.015"0.000"0.000"0.000"3.0" / 6hr0.01" in 6hr — 0% of 3.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Osage CreekNo Alert1.28 in36.11N 93.31W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.059"4.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Little Buffalo Family
West Fork Shop CreekNo Alert2.50 in35.90N 93.24W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.020"4.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
EFLBNo Alert1.93 in35.85N 93.26W3.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"3.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Thomas CreekNo Alert2.34 in35.88N 93.35W2.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.020"4.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.00" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Mulberry Family
Spirits CreekNo Alert0.62 in35.68N 93.91W3.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.205"0.000"0.000"0.020"3.0" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.00" trigger (1.2x rain adj)
Richland Family
Richland MainNo Alert1.82 in35.75N 93.02W4.0 km5-70.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"1.05" / eventNo active rain event — Q 35 cfs (DRY: needs 1.05")
Falling WaterNo Alert1.81 in35.70N 92.96W2.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"1.31" / 12hr0.00" in 12hr — 0% of 1.31" trigger (Richland DRY × 1.25)
Big Devils ForkNo Alert1.46 in35.83N 92.97W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.020"2.1" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.10" trigger (Richland DRY × 2.0)
Long Devils ForkNo Alert1.73 in35.82N 92.99W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"2.1" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.10" trigger (Richland DRY × 2.0)
Bobtail CreekNo Alert1.56 in35.77N 92.90W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"1.58" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 1.58" trigger (Richland DRY × 1.5)
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DISCLAIMER: This site provides creek condition estimates for informational purposes only. Gauge data, radar estimates, and forecasts may be delayed, inaccurate, or unavailable. Always exercise independent judgment. Whitewater kayaking is inherently dangerous — water conditions can change rapidly. This site and its maintainers assume no responsibility for decisions made based on information displayed here.

Page Details: This page uses Data collected from NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Data (MRMS QPE) and the Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (WPC QPF) system. It attempts to predict when certain Creeks in the State of Arkansas will be boatable. The WPC QPF provides an amount of precipitation that is "Forecast to Fall" in a 5km x 5km grid, in the next 6, 12, and 24 hours, centered on the Latitude and Longitude of the defined watersheds of Arkansas Creeks. Information about the WPC QPF can be found here. The MRMS QPE gives an "Estimated Fallen" amount of precipitation in a geographic area, defined by a latitude and longitude, and a circle around that point. The resolution of the MRMS QPE system is a square approximately 1km by 1km. Learn more about the MRMS System here. Gauge Data updates every 15 minutes, QPE Data updates every hour, and QPF data updates every 3 hours.

Caveats: It goes without saying, but this is a different approach to judging when a creek is in than the traditional method of looking at the nearest USGS gauge (That data is still available via the main Gauges page) but it attempts to address the shortfall in identifying runnable creeks, that don't have a gauge on them (Or the gauge is at the bottom of the run) and have a tendency to drop out before folks could get on. It is obviously quite experimental, and triggers, thresholds and location data likely will need to be updated and refined. Contact Dave if you've got thoughts on how this page can be improved with additional data, or refinement of the data that is here.

Smarter triggers (July 2026): Most drainages now use a real creek gauge as a ground-dryness indicator. How much rain it takes to raise a creek depends heavily on how wet the ground already is — a dead-low creek in July can shrug off rain that would flood it in February. Upper Buffalo, Richland Main, and Upper Cossatot read their own gauge: the threshold in the Trigger column adjusts automatically to the creek's current flow ("event" = rain accumulated over the current storm, rather than a fixed time window), calibrated against 11+ years of radar and gauge history. Their neighboring drainages (the Buffalo, Little Buffalo, Kings, Richland, and Cossatot families) borrow the nearest calibrated gauge as a regional dryness read, scaled by a local-knowledge multiplier — the Detail column shows the reference gauge, its dryness bucket, and the multiplier (e.g. "Boxley DRY × 2.0"). These are heuristic, not calibrated — treat them as a watch, not a forecast. Spirits, the Big Piney family, and the Kiamichi creeks still use fixed thresholds adjusted by recent-rain multipliers (no suitable reference gauge yet).

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