"High / medium / low" on a prediction card is not a feeling — it's the measured historical hit rate of that exact kind of prediction, replayed over 11½ years. ≥65% verified = high, ≥40% = medium, below = low.
| Gauge | Category | Verified | Label shown | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | slight | 51% | medium | 2,734 predictions |
| Boxley | moderate | 59% | medium | 1,393 predictions |
| Boxley | large | 51% | medium | 124 predictions |
| Ponca | slight | 50% | medium | 2,047 predictions |
| Ponca | moderate | 44% | medium | 613 predictions |
| Ponca | large | 29% | low | 89 predictions |
| Pruitt | slight | 46% | medium | 2,056 predictions |
| Pruitt | moderate | 58% | medium | 611 predictions |
| Pruitt | large | 36% | low | 110 predictions |
| St. Joe | slight | 43% | medium | 3,009 predictions |
| St. Joe | moderate | 43% | medium | 730 predictions |
| St. Joe | large | 55% | high | 49 predictions |
| Harriet | slight | 43% | low | 2,525 predictions |
| Harriet | moderate | 48% | medium | 666 predictions |
| Harriet | large | 61% | medium | 44 predictions |
The wave tiers carry their calibration in their definition: over 11½ replayed years, warnings (band low end ≥ flood) verified as genuine floods 94–100% of the time at Pruitt, St. Joe and Harriet, and over 98% of warnings reached at least 60% of flood — blue-sky warnings essentially don't happen. Watches are the early tier: they catch 91–98% of floods, at the price that roughly half verify below flood stage — that's what an early heads-up costs.
Their label reflects actual forecast spread: high when the 25th–75th percentile range is tight and the countdown is under 3 days; low when the range is wide or the horizon is beyond a week (weather becomes the dominant unknown). Thin recent gauge data caps the label regardless.
Every number on this page is generated from the deployed model files and an 11½-year hourly replay (2014-12 → 2026-06, baseline v6). Generated 2026-07-02T22:57:24+00:00. Experimental — never rely on a single number for safety decisions.