Classification: correct Confidence: The model confidence trajectory remains stable. This correct prediction on a 'dry gauge' day with headwaters QPE validates the current dampening effects of NORMAL moisture tiers and the specific band sensitivity settings.
The model correctly predicted a minimal rise on a day with significant QPE in headwaters bands but zero gauge precipitation, aligning the low predicted peak with the actual minor observed rise.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.47 ft | 2.5 ft | -0.03 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.27 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.92" | 0.34 ft | HEAVY | NORMAL |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: None Notes: No empirical record available for grading today.
Today's event was characterized by substantial QPE in the headwaters bands (up to 0.44" in Band 4) but zero recorded precipitation at the gauge. The antecedent moisture was NORMAL, which dampens runoff efficiency compared to WET conditions. The physical prediction engine generated a peak of 2.47 ft, which is remarkably close to the actual observed peak of 2.50 ft, resulting in a negligible error of -1.2%.
The timing error of 0.6 hours is minor and within acceptable bounds for this type of event. The rise start was late in the day (21:15), and the hydrograph shape was sharp, consistent with the model's attribution of response to Band 5 (which had the highest cumulative QPE and was classified as HEAVY intensity in the prediction summary, likely due to short-duration bursts). The model correctly discounted the significant QPE in Bands 3 and 4, likely due to the lack of gauge precipitation and the specific dispersion/lag logic, resulting in a prediction that matched the muted physical response.
Since the prediction was accurate both in magnitude and general timing, no coefficient adjustments are necessary. This event reinforces the current calibration's ability to handle scenarios where headwaters QPE does not translate proportionally to gauge rise due to antecedent conditions or spatial mismatch.
No changes made.
The model confidence trajectory remains stable. This correct prediction on a 'dry gauge' day with headwaters QPE validates the current dampening effects of NORMAL moisture tiers and the specific band sensitivity settings.