Classification: correct Confidence: Model maintains high confidence in magnitude predictions for low-event days. Timing errors are expected when QPE lags actual precipitation start times, but magnitude accuracy should take precedence for coefficient stability.
The model correctly predicted a minimal rise event with high peak accuracy, despite a significant timing error caused by rainfall occurring late in the observation window.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.53 ft | 2.66 ft | -0.13 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.31 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.33" | 1.05 ft | MODERATE | NORMAL |
| 2 | 0.26" | 0.27 ft | MODERATE | NORMAL |
| 3 | 0.20" | 0.12 ft | MODERATE | NORMAL |
| 4 | 0.09" | 0.02 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
Headline: ~20% chance of rising to LOW in the next 6–12 h. Experimental. Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: None Notes: Empirical forecast was generated but not yet settled/evaluated in the provided data structure (outcome is null). The headline predicted a ~20% chance of rising to LOW, which is consistent with the minor rise observed (peak 2.66 ft < 3.0 ft LOW threshold), so it appears correct, but cannot be formally graded without settled data.
The prediction was quantitatively accurate regarding magnitude, with a predicted peak of 2.53 ft versus an actual peak of 2.66 ft, representing only a -4.9% error. This falls well within the acceptable threshold for a 'correct' classification. The event was characterized by zero gauge precipitation for the majority of the day, with QPE only appearing in the final hours (21:12-22:12 UTC). Consequently, the observed rise occurred early in the local day (00:30 local), likely driven by antecedent runoff or unmeasured local conditions, while the predicted peak was scheduled for the next morning based on the late-arriving QPE data. This explains the 24-hour timing discrepancy: the model reacted to rainfall that hadn't hit the sensors yet, predicting a future rise, while the actual gauge rose from baseline due to immediate local factors. Since both predicted and actual peaks remained close to the baseline (rise < 0.35 ft), the magnitude agreement validates the current coefficients for quiet days.
No changes made.
Model maintains high confidence in magnitude predictions for low-event days. Timing errors are expected when QPE lags actual precipitation start times, but magnitude accuracy should take precedence for coefficient stability.