Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains stable. The system correctly handled a 'no-event' scenario driven by negligible QPE and zero gauge rain. This reinforces the current coefficients for dry/normal conditions where low rainfall yields no rise.
The model correctly predicted a negligible rise on a day with almost zero precipitation and 0" gauge rain, accurately reflecting the hydrological reality.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.28 ft | 2.42 ft | -0.14 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.15 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.18" | 0.13 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
| 5 | 0.06" | 0.01 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
Headline: ~20% chance of rising to LOW in the next 6–12 h. Experimental. Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical model predicted a ~20% chance of rising to LOW (3.0 ft). The gauge peaked at 2.42 ft, well below the LOW threshold. The low probability assessment was borne out by the lack of rise.
The observed rise of 0.15 ft was minimal, and the predicted peak of 2.28 ft was within 5.8% of the actual peak of 2.42 ft. Given that the gauge precipitation was 0" and QPE was negligible across all bands (totaling less than 0.7" spread over 24 hours), the hydrological response should have been flat. The small observed rise is likely baseline noise or residual recession from previous events, not a new rainfall response. The prediction engine correctly identified that this rainfall input would not generate a significant hydrograph change.
The large timing error (20.1 hours) is irrelevant in this context because there was no distinct, sharp hydrograph peak to time. The actual 'peak' was the daily maximum of a flat line. The model's prediction of a peak 20 hours later essentially aligns with the assumption that no significant event occurred within the standard observation window. The model avoided a false positive by not predicting a rise based on the minute QPE values.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable. The system correctly handled a 'no-event' scenario driven by negligible QPE and zero gauge rain. This reinforces the current coefficients for dry/normal conditions where low rainfall yields no rise.