Empirical Forecasts — Cossatot River — 2026-07-15

Forecasts archived: 24
Settled (expiry passed): 24

Cossatot River

05:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 0.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 0.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 1.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 6.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 6h: 15.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 19.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 18:30 UTC)

17:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 20.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 18:15 UTC)

16:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 19.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 18:15 UTC)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 18.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

14:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 14.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

13:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 4.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

12:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

11:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 15:30 UTC)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)