Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-07-15

Forecasts archived: 16
Settled (expiry passed): 14

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-07-16 05:18 UTC

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-07-16 04:18 UTC

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 21.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 13.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

14:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

13:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

12:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

11:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 3.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 4.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 4.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)