Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-07-16

Forecasts archived: 16
Settled (expiry passed): 16

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

05:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

14:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)